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Yield, repression and ‘verbal’ intervention
Talk of negative deposit rates in Europe (Draghi’s verbal intervention), growing fears of deflation (least disinflation), Mrs Watanabe opening her purse, on-going bond-buying in the US, Japan, and...
View ArticleThe US dollar and Oil
With growing US production of oil and building inventory leading to less oil imports as a consequence, a lower current account deficit is likely. Add the warning shot of lower debasement efforts (WSJ)...
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Restructuring Basket
Rationale Since late June 2012, for those of more suspicious persuasions, we have been advocating allocating capital to quality restructuring stocks. We have been bullish on high quality growth stocks...
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Great rotation vs. Low bond yields
Even if we assume this great rotation is upon us (and we’re not sure one month of Bond loses is enough to suggest it is) then presumably bond investors looking for more protection from growth/inflation...
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Certainty: stocks with a history of delivery
Every stock in our HQGB has low EPS dispersion across the cycle and stable margins with an upward bias. A number of these have come back with the market, which we view as an opportunity to add....
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Globestity now front page news: Roche, Sanofi & Fresenius
Globesity makes the front pages of the press in the UK today. The most shocking aspect is the 4-fold increase in child obesity, described as a, “ticking time bomb”. It is a sobering reminder that...
View ArticleNovo Nordisk now qualifies for re-entry to our HQGB
Novo Nordisk was ejected from our HQGB for being too expensive in April 2012. On today’s numbers it would qualify for re-entry (yr 2 FCF yield is 5.6%, resilient margins and top-line growth 2x the...
View ArticleYTD performance: signs of strength or next to fall?
SXXP -1.4%, SX5E -4.7% HQGB + 5.65% Is the significant outperformance of our HQGB a worrying sign (as in next to fall) or a show of strength? We think the latter and use weakness to add to the...
View ArticleTaper or no taper, Chinese hard-landing or not… we have a Globesity problem
Buy Novo Nordisk Buy Fresenius Buy Roche Buy Sanofi Obesity is one of the biggest epidemics facing the world today. Obesity population growth has been 4 xs faster than population growth. Over 20% of...
View ArticleGlobesity: Roche & Sanofi and a 30 page primer
Riccardo thinks Sanofi and Roche are the best looking charts in Pharma. That is lucky because we have just written a 30 page primer on the drivers of Globesity, the scale of the problem and the stocks...
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Globesity: Roche, Sanofi and Fresenius. Momentum continues
We note a few more joining us in supporting Roche etc post the recent pull-back and our Globesity note earlier this week. Another name we mentioned (also included in the note) is Fresenius, and while...
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Globesity: Sanofi over reaction
This looks like a big over reaction in Sanofi, also the lantus numbers impress (+17%), which bodes well for the diabetes thematic, and especially Novo Nordisk. We would buy both here.
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Sanofi (HQGB): buy weakness
Down 6% looks an overreaction to news which isn’t altogether new. Speed bumps are just that, bumps, and while unhelpful short term they don’t de-rail the longer term story. We should remember, the...
View ArticleSanofi: base now formed?
Post Sanofi’s miss last week and the subsequent 4% EPS downgrade the stock now seems to have found a base. A combination of tough comps due to a residual impact of patent cliff, sales impact from...
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Thought for the day
Since first discussing an improving Europe (back in Q1) and the risk of ‘mean-reversion’ (a lack of new negatives forcing funds to cover/close large underweight bets) we have seen a large number of...
View Article“Globesity”: Obesity is more deadly than previously thought
The latest annual definitive report on Obesity paints a shocking picture. Over the weekend, the 2013 “F as in Fat: Obesity Policy” report was released. The findings include a 20 year in-depth study of...
View ArticleGlobesity is our biggest export
“Our biggest export to the East is not our Education or our Culture or even our Brands. It is our Diet. And with our Diet comes our Disease”. Sadly, the Chinese Diabetes epidemic continues to grow. The...
View ArticleSanofi (buy): decades in the making
Today the EMA has approved Sanofi’s Lemtrada for Multiple Sclerosis. Perhaps not a total surprise given the CHMP (which advises the EMA) recommended approval in July but a positive none the less. This...
View ArticlePost the move in bonds and EMs, keep adding to quality growth
From earlier this week: “The summer bond crash lead to a crash in things that are bond-like, such that fund-manager allocations to Consumer Staples are at 7 year lows (if you follow the FMS). The other...
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Great rotation vs. Low bond yields
Even if we assume this great rotation is upon us (and we’re not sure one month of Bond loses is enough to suggest it is) then presumably bond investors looking for more protection from growth/inflation...
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